Real GDP growth rate (% y/y) · OECD Economic Outlook No. 119, June 2026 — "time-limited disruption" scenario
Data Sources & Methodology
- → OECD Economic Outlook No. 119 (June 2026), "Under Pressure" — Statistical Annex, Annex Table 2: Real GDP.
oecd.org/economic-outlook
- → OECD Economic Outlook 119 database — country projections for real GDP growth.
oecd.org/statistical-annex
- → IMF World Economic Outlook — cross-referenced for validation.
Note: Growth rates represent the year-over-year percentage change in real (inflation-adjusted) GDP.
2025 values are estimates based on available data; 2026 and 2027 values are OECD projections.
Because of the energy shock from the evolving conflict in the Middle East, the June 2026 Economic Outlook
presents two scenarios; figures shown here follow the central "time-limited disruption" scenario, in which
energy prices gradually ease from mid-2026 onward and Gulf production and trade return to pre-conflict levels
from Q3 2026. Under the alternative "prolonged disruption" scenario, OECD growth would slow to 0.9% in 2026
and 0.5% in 2027. Ireland's 2025 estimate (12.4%) is inflated by volatile multinational-driven activity
(tangibles and intangibles); it is truncated in the chart. Figures are subject to revision as new data becomes available.